Belarus Review by iSANS — March 10, 2025 

The Belarusian Armed Forces continued their combat readiness inspection. Throughout the week, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus reported that the main activities took place at two training grounds: Obuz-Liasnouski and Barysauski. On March 3, command and staff exercises began at the Obuz-Liasnouski training ground, involving units staffed with reservists called up for military service. During the exercises, personnel practiced defensive operations, including repelling an attack by a simulated enemy, eliminating illegal armed formations and sabotage-reconnaissance groups, as well as providing fire support for defending troops. Various types of drones and electronic warfare systems were actively used. On March 5, State Secretary of the Security Council Aliaksandr Valfovich and Chief of the General Staff Pavel Muraveika arrived at the training ground to observe the exercises. The officials made a series of statements, which were published by the Ministry of Defense of Belarus. In particular, Valfovich stated that the combat readiness inspection covered “individual training, the removal of equipment from storage, checking the combat capability of equipment, as well as the coordination of units, platoons, companies, and battalions. […] We are on the right track, conducting such events and preparing our trained military reserve to defend our country if necessary.” Muraveika added: “We clearly understand that our state must be prepared for defense. That is why we conduct such sudden inspections. We have a certain resource allocated by the government to ensure the training of a combat-ready reserve.”

Throughout the week, at the Barysauski training ground, combat coordination exercises were conducted with motorized rifle, tank, and artillery units involved in the combat readiness inspection. On March 9, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus reported that under the command of the Northwestern Operational Command, tactical exercises were being held with these units. During the exercises, reservists were tasked with taking up defensive positions in designated areas and repelling a simulated enemy offensive.
According to Ukrainian monitoring channels, between March 3 and March 9, at least two Russian Shahed drones were detected in Belarusian airspace. One later crossed into Ukraine, while the fate of the second remains unknown. There were no reports of drones being intercepted in Belarusian airspace.

On March 4, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus reported that Chief of the General Staff Pavel Muraveika conducted a command and staff training session with the leadership and faculty of the Military Academy, as well as officers from the General Staff Faculty. According to Muraveika, during the training, participants “train as part of or as a command structure at the operational level.” They were required to justify their decisions, perform calculations, and develop operational plans tailored to Belarusian conditions. One of the objectives of the training was to develop initial data for the upcoming Zapad-2025 exercises.

From March 4 to March 7, mobilization readiness training was conducted in all regions of Belarus. Official resources of military commissariats reported on the events. The training included exercises with officials responsible for managing territorial defense forces, as well as with administrators of personnel reception points. Additionally, training was conducted on the formation of volunteer militia units. Such exercises take place twice a year.

On March 4, Aliaksandr Lukashenka signed a law ratifying the Security Guarantees Treaty between Belarus and Russia within the framework of the Union State. It is worth noting that on February 28, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a similar law, thus completing the ratification process for both parties.

On March 6, during Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s visit to an exhibition of “the latest Russian unmanned aerial systems,” it was announced that Russia had proposed building a drone manufacturing plant in Belarus. The facility’s production capacity could reach up to 100,000 units annually. Lukashenka supported the idea of constructing the plant. He also suggested forming a group of Belarusian specialists and sending them to Russia for further training in key areas of drone technology. Additionally, Lukashenka stated that he plans to evaluate the progress of Belarusian specialists in developing domestic drone systems in April-May.

During the period under review, the leader of the Belarusian Democratic Forces, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya continued her working visit to Italy and was in Rome on March 6, where she participated in a conference of the Parliamentary Alliance “For a Democratic Belarus”. The first such event was held in Berlin in 2023. Tsikhanouskaya opened the conference with a speech in which she presented several proposals to representatives of European parliaments. In her view, these steps will help strengthen international support for Belarus and keep it on the agenda: “Distinguish between Belarus and Russia, and between the Belarusian people and the regime. We must emphasize the importance of Belarus’ European future and that the European project will not be complete without Belarus — just like without Ukraine, Moldova, or Georgia,” — she stated. Among other steps, she mentioned cooperation with the democratic forces of Belarus, organizing discussions on Belarus in parliaments, including issues related to the mobility of Belarusians, as well as supporting the campaign for the release of political prisoners. “Following this forum, we propose signing the ‘Rome Memorandum’ to highlight our unity,” — she concluded. Thirty members of parliament signed the Memorandum, which outlines key positions and tasks in support of democratic change in Belarus. The participants emphasized the importance of ending repression and securing the release of all political prisoners, as well as integrating Belarusians who were forced to leave the country due to repression, based on the “Luxembourg Solutions” adopted in June 2024. They also called for holding of free and fair elections in line with OSCE standards and highlighted the need to support independent media and civil society. Additionally, the declaration stressed the importance of supporting anti-war initiatives in Belarus, as the illegitimate regime has dragged the country into aggression against Ukraine. Meanwhile, a solidarity action took place in Vilnius on March 9 to support political prisoners held incommunicado in Belarus. The event marked two years since Siarhei Tsikhanouski was placed in incommunicado detention. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya emphasized: “Let me thank each and every one of you for being here today. Thank you for remembering our political prisoners. For not giving up and continuing to fight. Your solidarity is a force that helps us endure even the hardest trials”.

March 9 marked three years since the formation of the Kastus Kalinousky Regiment, a Belarusian unit fighting against Russian aggression in Ukraine. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya emphasized that from the first days of the full-scale war, Belarusians joined Ukraine’s defense, recognizing that their struggle is also for Belarus’s right to language, history, culture, and self-determination: “Over the years, Belarusian volunteers have fought on the frontlines, rescued civilians, provided weapons, medical aid, and humanitarian support, proving that their commitment to freedom is more than just words.” She stressed that many remain unnamed, but their contributions are no less heroic, and those who have fallen — like Mikhail Zhyzneuski, ‘Brest,’ Maryia Zaitsava, and ‘Tur’ — are remembered with honor. “No one asks whether we want to live through historic events,” — Tsikhanouskaya said, “but Belarusians are doing everything to ensure these events lead to victory.”

The Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs has drastically reduced the issuance of humanitarian visas to Belarusians and revised its approach. According to Rzeczpospolita, since August 2020, Poland has granted over 53,500 humanitarian visas to Belarusian citizens. However, last year, the number dropped to just 500. The humanitarian visa program was initially introduced in response to the crackdown in Belarus following the events of August 2020. The new leadership at the Polish Foreign Ministry has adjusted the visa issuance policy. Ministry representatives explained that the decision was partly due to the “overly lenient approach” taken by Belarusian applicants, who allegedly frequently used humanitarian visas for purposes other than intended — primarily for traveling within the Schengen zone or moving between Belarus and Poland. Meanwhile, Dzianis Kuchynski, an advisor to Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, commented on the reduction in the issuance of humanitarian visas to Belarusians in Poland, supporting it. He emphasized that Poland’s decision to tighten the visa issuance system aims to ensure transparency and security in migration processes. Humanitarian visas, he stressed, “should be used strictly for their intended purpose — to protect individuals who are genuinely at risk of persecution.” As for Schengen visas, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s advisor stated that Belarusians can obtain them at the embassies of Italy, France, and Germany in Minsk, as well as through visa centers. However, the issue lies in the fact that the Lukashenka regime does not allow the expansion of consular services in Belarus, making the process more difficult.

Exchanged Russian spy Pavel Rubtsov (Pablo González) had been monitoring the Belarusian democratic forces in Poland, Gazeta Wyborcza reports. According to the indictment, Rubtsov gathered information on critical infrastructure, systems, and facilities essential to Poland’s security and the safety of its citizens. In September 2020, he sent detailed information about the activities of the Belarusian democratic opposition following the establishment of the Coordination Council in exile in Warsaw.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that increasing the military presence on the border with Belarus is essential. He emphasized that protecting the eastern border is now a priority, as it directly impacts the security of all of Europe. Tusk made this statement in Brussels, where he attended a summit on security and Ukraine on March 6. Meanwhile, Poland has extended the ban on staying in the border area with Belarus for another 90 days. It is noted that the activities of illegal migrants at the border are “well-organized and coordinated,” with migrants “ignoring calls to obey the law.” Additionally, there have been “attacks on Polish officers.” It is claimed that this pressure was “artificially created by the Belarusian authorities to destabilize Poland and other European Union countries.”

Prime Minister and Chairman of Myanmar’s State Administration Council, Min Aung Hlaing, has arrived in Belarus for an official visit. He was met at the airport by Foreign Minister Maksim Ryzhenkov. Earlier, it was reported that on March 7, Aliaksandr Lukashenka would meet with Min Aung Hlaing at the Palace of Independence. Talks were planned in both narrow and expanded formats. The parties will discuss “the development of cooperation in trade, economic, and humanitarian areas, as well as outline future plans.” The agenda included joint efforts in industry, agriculture, pharmaceuticals, and scientific collaboration. During the negotiations Lukashenka stated that “Belarus and Myanmar must identify global, fundamental projects”: “We have a great deal of interest in Myanmar. You possess many of the things we need”. Following negotiations with Lukashenka, Min Aung Hlaing proposed that the Belarusian side invest in the country’s ports “on mutually beneficial terms.” After the meeting, several bilateral agreements were expected to be signed, including an agreement on the mutual protection of classified information. Accordingly, Belarusian and Myanmar enterprises and companies have also signed 13 bilateral agreements at the Belarus-Myanmar Business Forum, currently taking place in Minsk. The agreements include contracts for the supply of tractors, aiming to assemble up to 600 machines in a year, pharmaceutical products, and food, as well as memorandums of understanding between Belarusian and Myanmar higher education institutions. Additionally, Belarus plans to supply Myanmar with radars, according to the Minister of Industry, Aliaksandr Yefimov. Yefimov also mentioned that there is interest in supplying both cargo and passenger vehicles. Finally. Min Aung Hlaing awarded Lukashenka the Order of the Union of Myanmar, 1^st class.

In 2024, 1,348 violations of cultural and human rights of cultural workers in Belarus were recorded, the Belarusian PEN reported in its annual report. The information is based on data collected from open sources, as well as through personal contacts and direct communication with cultural figures on a confidential basis. Violations of the right to a fair trial and recognition of cultural materials (or social networks of cultural figures) “extremist” are the most frequent violations. At least 289 cultural materials or social networks of cultural figures have been included in the Republican List of Extremist Materials by the Ministry of Information. The Belarusian PEN recalls that 2024 was the third year of detention of Nobel Peace Prize laureate, human rights activist and literary critic Ales Bialiatski. There are at least 103 other political prisoners who are cultural figures in prison. The year was marked by a wave of detentions and searches among architects, directors of event agencies, leading actors of the Republican Theater of Belarusian Drama, dismissals from the Museum of Traditional Culture in Braslau, from the Belarusfilm movie studio, from the University of Culture and Arts and other institutions. Trans-national repression of cultural figures is gaining momentum and included the trial in absentia against independent researchers (the so-called “Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s analysts case”); the initiation of criminal proceedings against representatives of the People’s Embassies of Belarus and the persecution of cultural figures in exile for celebrating Freedom Day and for participating in elections to the Coordination Council.

In 2024, almost 600 minors were convicted in Belarus, every forth was sentenced to imprisonment. More than 40 teenagers were punished under political charges. According to the Supreme Court, they were convicted of participating in protests – 29 persons, for inciting hostility (usually such charges are made for negative comments towards the security officers) – three persons, mass riots – three persons, insulting Lukashenka – three persons, calls for sanctions – three persons, high treason and insulting officials – one person each. The colony for minors has its own punishment cells. The perpetrators are not allowed to call or write to their relatives. The expert emphasized that, in accordance with the UN Guidelines on the Prevention of Juvenile Delinquency (The Riyadh Guidelines), sending teenagers to correctional institutions should be a last resort and for the minimum necessary period, with the interests of the child being of primary importance. “If we analyze the sentences of political prisoners, we will see that this principle has been violated. Moreover, teenagers who wrote a petition for clemency addressed to Lukashenka were eventually refused. Some were included in the list of extremists after their release, which leaded to continued restriction of their rights,” he stressed.

At least 188 people have been convicted for “calling for sanctions” in four years. This charge became one of the tools of repression after the 2020 protests, allowing punishments for statements on social networks and media. Most of the convicts received long imprisonment terms, some were convicted in absentia. Not only activists and politicians fall under persecution, but also representatives of various professions — lawyers, journalists, human rights defenders, doctors and entrepreneurs. Lawyers call this charge an instrument of political repression that does not comply with international human rights standards and persecution under this charge – an intimidation of people.
In February 2025, human rights defenders recorded at least 656 cases of politically motivated repression (detentions and searches), “Viasna” Human Rights Center reported. At least 352 persons were tried in “political” administrative cases. Increased checks and detentions at the borders continued. 39 people were recognized as political prisoners. Political criminal cases were considered against at least 304 people. The number of politically motivated cases in absentia continued to grow. The practice of applying a special procedure to non-media people is expanding.

On March 3, nine more persons were recognized as political prisoners. They were charged or convicted under the charge of participation in group actions grossly violating public order. As of March 7, 1,219 persons, were recognized as political prisoners. Bloggers, businessmen, activists from the headquarters of presidential candidates, and participants in protest actions, are deprived of liberty and are far from their families and friends, because they were not afraid to exercise their rights – the right to participate in peaceful assemblies, to express their opinions, and to participate in the political life of the country. Most of these persons have been subjected to politically motivated criminal prosecution in connection with the events that unfolded during and after the presidential election campaign in Belarus in 2020.

On March 4, the trial of Andrei Krasko began in the Pervamaiski district court of Vitsebsk. He is accused of picketing and spreading extremism. Krasko is the director of the Vitsebsk-MegaTur travel agency, which is the official representative of a large network of Hot Tours travel agencies in Vitsebsk.

As it became known, Aliaksandr Kravchuk, a resident of Kobryn with a disability, was sentenced to four and a half years of imprisonment on charges of facilitating extremist activities. His trial took place in October 2024. In 2016, Kravchuk’s leg was torn off due to a gas cylinder exploding in a car. He had been fighting with officials for a long time, trying to figure out who would be responsible for the explosion. He also sought the return of a preferential tax for the disabled for the use of land.

The Interior Ministry has put Mikalai Khalezin, a famous Belarusian playwright, actor and film director on the wanted list. Khalezin is the artistic director of the Belarusian “Free Theater”, which he co-founded with his wife Natallia Kalyada in 2005. He is wanted for “joining an extremist group.”

Since the beginning of the year, the BYSOL foundation has evacuated 23 persons from Belarus. Andrei Strizhak, the founder of the BYSOL, said that most of these persons are non–public and non-media. “We help everyone we can,” he wrote on his Facebook page. On March 4, he reported that he had managed to get former political prisoner journalist Ksenia Lutskina out of Belarus. The BYSOL team launched a fundraising campaign for her treatment (being in custody she developed a brain tumor) and adaptation. The amount planned to collect was seven thousand Euro. It was collected in a few days.

Pensioner Natallia Ladutka was sentenced to four years of imprisonment and fined 25,200 rubles (more than seven thousand Euro) for helping political prisoners. She was detained in January 2024. A year later, a trial took place – she was accused of facilitating “extremist activities.” The court’s wording reads as follows: “gratuitous transfers of funds and shipments of food, clothing, personal hygiene products and other items to persons who were in custody and in places of execution of sentences related to imprisonment.” The “extremist group” that Ladutka was accused of helping was Dissidentby initiative. There were 177 episodes of money transfers and sending parcels in her case, including a transfer of 100 rubles to the prisoner’s prison account and sending a parcel weighing four kilograms. According to the case-file, Ladutka transferred more than 4,000 rubles and sent parcels for more than 500 kilograms during the period of two years.

On March 5, the trial of Tamara Patocka began in the Pervamaiski district court of Minsk. She is accused of participating in group actions that grossly violate public order. Tamara Patocka is the owner of an agricultural estate in the village of Chizhi. She was detained in December last year. In 2020, Patocka was in Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s initiative group. In 2020, she was arrested for 15 days, and in 2022, she received a fine for distributing “extremist materials.” In recent years, according to her friends, Patocka has not been socially active.

Residents of Belarus who emigrated after 2020 began receiving calls from the security forces, who urged them not to return to the country. A native of Minsk named Aksana (her last name was not disclosed), who lives in Poland, said that a letter from the Interior Ministry had arrived at her address in Minsk. Inside was the text of a statement that she was supposed to sign. It said that the criminal case against her would be dropped in exchange for her promise never to return to the country again. It is known of several more such calls and letters to the registration address of those who have left the country.

On March 7, the trial of political prisoner journalist Palina Pitkevich began in the Minsk City Court. She is accused of participating in an “extremist formation” and faces up to six years of imprisonment. Pitkevich is accused of collaborating with the online media MediaIQ, a project aimed at improving media literacy and promoting a culture of “conscious attitude to information in the media”. It is still unknown what the essence of the charges is. Pitkevich was detained in Minsk on June 6, 2024. On June 13, 2024, the Ministry of Information, based on a court decision, added the website and social networks of the MediaIQ project to the list of “extremist materials”. On June 18, 2024, the KGB of Belarus decided to declare MediaIQ an “extremist formation,” and Pitkevich was named a participant in this media project.

There was no information about Siarhei Tsikhanouski since March 9, 2023. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya expressed deep concern for his fate, noting that she had not had contact with him for two years. Siarhei Tsikhanouski was detained in May 2020 and sentenced to 18 years of imprisonment. Later the term was increased by a year for “disobeying the administration”.

On March 4, a discussion with human rights defenders from Belarus and Russia took place in London in the British Parliament. “Viasna” Human Rights Center activist Natallia Satsunkevich, along with Chair of the Belarusian PEN and poetess Tatsiana Niadbaj, as well as researcher and human rights activist from OVD-Info Elena Lipatova, spoke about the current human rights situation in these countries, discussed challenges and opportunities, and explained to the British authorities how to help the civil society of Belarus and Russia. The discussion helped to identify important areas that require support and assistance from the UK and the international community.

On March 5, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya opened the Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought award ceremony in Milan. She dedicated her speech to Belarusians who suffered from repression, as well as the consequences to which the world is being pushed by propaganda. “I remember how, together with my Belarusian friends, I received the Sakharov Prize in the European Parliament. This gesture of support for Belarusians came at a very difficult time, when the repression against our people became especially merciless. And this award inspired us to continue, to fight. I am sure it has the same effect on all the laureates. It shows that they are not alone,” Tsikhanouskaya said. “The regime is trying to stifle the truth with violence and isolation. More than 1,200 political prisoners remain behind bars. […] The dictator wants to break them, to prevent the truth from coming to light. But it is impossible to hide the truth behind prison walls,” she stressed. The Andrei Sakharov Prize was established in 1988. It is awarded by the European Parliament to individuals who have made “an exceptional contribution to the fight for human rights around the globe.”

UN Special Rapporteurs have criticized the new Belarusian draft law “On changing laws on ensuring children’s rights.” They sent a letter to the authorities calling banning those convicted of “extremism” from working with children a restriction on labor rights. The document does not specify which charges are classified as «extremist.» The Special Rapporteurs recalled that they have repeatedly pointed out the incompatibility of Belarusian “anti-extremist” laws with international human rights standards. They assessed the draft law as “discrimination, based on political or other beliefs,” given that in Belarus anti-extremist legislation is abused to persecute political opposition, human rights defenders, media workers, civil society activists and others for “their actual or perceived disagreement with the authorities”. Experts called on the Belarusian authorities to review and revise the draft law to ensure its compliance with the country’s international human rights obligations. The letter was sent on February 25. It was signed by Special Rapporteur on the human rights situation in Belarus Nils Muižnieks, Special Rapporteur in the field of cultural rights Alexandra Xanthaki, Special Rapporteur on the right to education Farida Shaheed, Special Rapporteur on the independence of judges and lawyers Margaret Satterthwaite, Special Rapporteur on the Promotion and Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms while Countering Terrorism Ben Saul.

On the eve of March 8, Head of the EU Delegation to Belarus Steen Noerlov, Ambassador-at-Large of the Lithuanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Asta Andrijauskiene and the British Embassy in Minsk called for urgent medical assistance and the release of women political prisoners. “On this International Women’s Day #IWD2025, we remember 150 women political prisoners in Belarus. Viktorya Kulsha and Alena Hnauk are among those who are imprisoned with serious health problems and do not receive the necessary medical care. It’s inhumane. We demand immediate medical assistance and the release of all political prisoners. #FreeThemAll,” the message read.

On March 7, UN Special Rapporteurs and Working Groups, including Working Group on Enforced or Involuntary Disappearances, Working Group on arbitrary detention, Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Belarus, Special Rapporteur on the Rights to Freedom of Peaceful Assembly and of Association, Special Rapporteur on the right to freedom of opinion and expression, Special Rapporteur on the promotion and protection of human rights and fundamental freedoms while countering terrorism, Independent Expert on the enjoyment of all human rights by older persons, and Special Rapporteur on violence against women and girls, its causes and consequences, stated Belarus must disclose the fate and whereabouts of pro-democracy activist Siarhei Tsikhanouski. They recalled that several other members of pro-democratic forces have also been subjected to enforced disappearance or held incommunicado for extended periods of time, including Viktar Babaryka, Mikalai Statkevich, Maryia Kalesnikava and Maksim Znak. “Belarus must end the use of enforced disappearance against political opponents and civic activists,” the experts said – “We are deeply concerned over the continued incommunicado detention and ill-treatment of women and men political prisoners.” “The enforced disappearance of Tsikhanouski and others is a blatant violation of international law. These actions seek to silence political opposition and instill fear,” the experts said on the second anniversary of Tsikhanouski’s enforced disappearance. “Denying medical care and keeping prisoners in prolonged incommunicado detention violate Belarus’ international obligations and amount to torture,” the experts said. “We urge Belarus to end these abuses and ensure accountability.” The experts recalled that in its numerous opinions the Working Group on Arbitrary Detention found the detention of oppositional leaders and activists in Belarus arbitrary and requested their immediate release. The experts called on Belarus to clarify without delay the fate and whereabouts of forcibly disappeared persons, release all arbitrarily detained individuals, allow independent monitoring of detention conditions, engage meaningfully with international human rights mechanisms, and bring its counter-terrorism and anti-extremist legal framework in conformity with international legal standards. “We urge the international community to maintain pressure for accountability and justice,” the experts said.

On March 3, during a meeting with the renewed social bloc of the government, Aliaksandr Lukashenka spoke about public figures who, according to him, are essentially “enemies of our state” and are “lying low for now.” It is obvious that he was referring to those who joined the protesters in 2020. “One must know how to forgive. One must. If possible. But if a person has violated, broken the law, and did so consciously, what kind of forgiveness can there be? I say this in this circle because how can public figures be forgiven? All public figures — healthcare, education, media, culture, sports — are public. And if you violated order, the law somewhere, if you spoke out against the state, the whole nation saw it.” He specifically addressed Minister of Culture Ruslan Charnetski and said that if there are any “fluctuations” in his area of responsibility, they “must be stopped” and that subordinates should be “state-minded people.” He also instructed the Minister of Information Marat Markau to “move forward and win” in the conditions of the “ongoing information war.”

On March 4, Deputy Head of Lukashenka’s Administration Uladzimir Piartsou stated that ideologists should work more with individual entrepreneurs and private businesses. “It is important not only to work with our activists but also to reach out to those groups where no ideologist has set foot. These include individual entrepreneurs and private commercial enterprises. It also means meeting with people in residential areas who run households and are not involved in the economy,” he was quoted by BelTA. Piartsou emphasized that people in this sector are also citizens and participate in voting, “so it is impossible not to cover them with our work.”

During the period under review, pro-government experts and propagandists continued attempts to analyze the consequences of the dispute between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Donald Trump at the White House on February 28. Many of them remain wary of the political course Trump has chosen regarding Russia and Ukraine, while also calling for distrust of the “Anglo-Saxons” and Europeans, who “will always protect their own interests.” Anton Papou from SB. Belarus Today: “The recent events surrounding Ukraine highlight several current trends. First, tram-like rudeness on one side and imperial ambitions mixed with ‘cowboy’ diplomacy on the other are clearly not the factors that can move negotiations forward to end the bloodiest conflict of modern times. Second, the negotiation process must take into account the interests of many parties: for example, a stable peace will be impossible without Belarus participating in negotiations and obtaining security guarantees. Third, hopes for a quick peace seem to be fading like smoke due to the fact that, as highlighted by the reactions of several Democratic politicians in the U.S. and many figures in the EU, the so-called collective West no longer exists.” On March 4, propagandist Kseniya Lebiadzeva called the Oval Office meeting a “theatrical performance” and said that “Donald Trump’s peace diplomacy has temporarily collapsed.” A guest on her show “This is Different,” Colonel Andrey Bahadzel, commented on the events as follows: “Europe has still not adapted to the new world. It does not see the possibilities for resolving these contradictions that Trump sees. They do not understand that the world has already changed, and their strategy remains the same — the strategy of defeating Russia and prolonging the armed conflict. Zelenskyy, who went to meet Trump, was nothing more than the mouthpiece of this Europe. He brought this ultimatum from globalist Europe to Trump to force him into the trajectory that the global world is now trying to present as something that can supposedly save the world.” Pro-government expert Aliaksandr Shpakouski, in turn, expressed his opinion on his Telegram channel that “within the Western camp,” trends of division are growing: “European globalists are consolidating against the backdrop of Trump’s team supporting non-mainstream right-wing politicians in EU countries. Decisions have been made to continue military support for the Kyiv regime (according to the well-known formula ‘war against Russia to the last Ukrainian’), to organize sabotage of Trump’s administrative decisions within the U.S. using Democratic Party governors, migrant masses, criminal elements, and leftist groups, as well as to persecute ‘right-wing’ figures in the EU using intelligence services and repressive methods.” He believes there is “a rapprochement between the British Crown and the European bureaucracy, where the leading role is not played by the noisy Macron but by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.” His colleague Aliaksei Dzermant warns that negotiations with the West can take place, but “trusting them and giving up our positions is impossible” because Belarus “has its own socio-economic model and values,” one of the custodians of which is the Communist Party. He also reminds that Belarus has reliable allies — Russia and China — and that in the confrontation between the U.S. and China, Belarus will “support its strategic partner.”

On March 5, American blogger Mario Nawfal published an interview that, as previously reported, he conducted with Aliaksandr Lukashenka on February 27 in Minsk. Both the full version and excerpts of this interview were actively distributed by state media. Pro-government expert Aliaksandr Tsishchanka called it “a prologue to the main stage of building relations between the West and the East and an annotation to peace initiatives.” During the conversation, Lukashenka lavished praise on Donald Trump, offered his services in stopping the war, though he simultaneously played coy, saying that he “hates mediation the most” because it requires “a powerful resource.” “And Trump is great for often speaking out and already doing something to stop the war in Ukraine and the Middle East. This is very valuable in foreign policy. I think he has no other policy but to stop the war. A brilliant idea. Here, I am ready to stand next to him and do everything necessary to end the war and improve people’s lives,” the dictator declared. At the same time, he suggested “not pressuring Zelenskyy” since “a large part of Ukrainian society stands behind him.” He said that Minsk could once again serve as a negotiating platform: “If you want — come. It’s just 200 km from the Belarusian border to Kyiv. Half an hour by plane. Come. We will sit here calmly, without noise, without shouting, and reach an agreement. So, tell Trump: I am waiting for him here along with Putin and Zelenskyy. We will sit down and calmly negotiate.” Lukashenka suggested that three years ago, Putin allegedly “did not think this would turn into such a war,” and when he saw that “a huge number of people were dying,” he “immediately went to negotiations” to agree “on NATO, demilitarization, and denazification.” Furthermore, in the interview, the Belarusian dictator advised Trump against confrontation with China, even though Trump had not sought his counsel: “What would I advise Trump? Do not recklessly attack China. You need to negotiate with China. I know China very well. I have watched it develop with my own eyes. You will not stop China. This is not us, not Russia. This is China. There, 1.5 billion people are ready to defend China to the last.” Lukashenka believes that Russia will try to establish good relations with the U.S., but sanctions imposed on Moscow and Minsk hinder this process, forcing the Kremlin to strengthen ties with Beijing. Lukashenka noted that while Trump made many good statements, some were unnecessary: “Jokingly, I say: ‘Over there in America, they lack me.’ I would have looked Trump in the eye and told him what not to do. Too many statements were made that should not have been voiced at all.” He added that if results are not achieved and tensions do not cool down, the Republicans have no chance of winning the next term in the White House. Lukashenka also stated that Putin “is convinced that today there are no major reasons for launching a nuclear war” and that he “has never held the button in his hands, ready to press it within minutes”: “He was as ready to press the red button as you in the U.S., England, or France were. I know you were not ready. And neither was Putin.” However, Lukashenka clarified that “all methods of struggle” would be used only if aggression were committed against Belarus and Russia, but even in that case, tactical nuclear weapons would not be used first, as “other methods” exist.